Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 138,555
2 South Dakota 136,613
3 Rhode Island 136,071
4 Utah 122,321
5 Tennessee 119,509
6 Arizona 117,133
7 Iowa 113,867
8 Oklahoma 112,425
9 Wisconsin 111,687
10 Nebraska 111,654
11 Arkansas 110,406
12 South Carolina 110,178
13 New Jersey 109,407
14 Alabama 106,384
15 Kansas 105,764
16 Indiana 105,155
17 Mississippi 103,737
18 Idaho 103,457
19 Delaware 103,024
20 Illinois 102,593
21 New York 102,031
22 Nevada 100,721
23 Florida 100,370
24 Montana 100,167
25 Georgia 99,611
26 Wyoming 98,947
27 Kentucky 98,462
28 Texas 98,205
29 Minnesota 97,913
30 Louisiana 97,219
31 Massachusetts 97,102
32 Missouri 97,027
33 California 94,006
34 New Mexico 92,934
35 Connecticut 92,296
36 North Carolina 90,586
37 Ohio 89,836
38 Alaska 89,386
39 Michigan 86,830
40 Pennsylvania 86,249
41 Colorado 85,116
42 West Virginia 82,622
43 Virginia 75,358
44 Maryland 71,711
45 New Hampshire 66,859
46 District of Columbia 65,815
47 Washington 50,650
48 Puerto Rico 48,278
49 Maine 42,050
50 Oregon 41,184
51 Vermont 34,941
52 Hawaii 22,254

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 882
2 New Jersey 445
3 Pennsylvania 443
4 Rhode Island 432
5 Maine 421
6 Delaware 406
7 Minnesota 396
8 Colorado 352
9 Puerto Rico 334
10 New York 330
11 Florida 323
12 New Hampshire 319
13 Massachusetts 318
14 Connecticut 315
15 Illinois 291
16 Alaska 264
17 South Dakota 264
18 Maryland 251
19 West Virginia 238
20 North Carolina 229
21 North Dakota 226
22 Vermont 221
23 Tennessee 207
24 District of Columbia 204
25 South Carolina 203
26 Indiana 191
27 Ohio 182
28 Oregon 182
29 Washington 182
30 Nebraska 180
31 Wisconsin 171
32 Virginia 168
33 Kentucky 165
34 Montana 162
35 Iowa 160
36 Nevada 159
37 Georgia 154
38 Utah 150
39 Idaho 143
40 Missouri 134
41 Kansas 128
42 Louisiana 120
43 Texas 113
44 Wyoming 113
45 New Mexico 111
46 Mississippi 100
47 Oklahoma 82
48 Arkansas 81
49 Arizona 78
50 Hawaii 78
51 Alabama 76
52 California 64

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,825
2 New York 2,619
3 Massachusetts 2,531
4 Rhode Island 2,498
5 Mississippi 2,398
6 Arizona 2,356
7 Connecticut 2,242
8 Louisiana 2,211
9 South Dakota 2,206
10 Alabama 2,190
11 Pennsylvania 2,006
12 North Dakota 1,980
13 Indiana 1,962
14 New Mexico 1,909
15 Illinois 1,887
16 Arkansas 1,886
17 Iowa 1,863
18 South Carolina 1,808
19 Georgia 1,799
20 Michigan 1,787
21 Tennessee 1,749
22 Nevada 1,741
23 Texas 1,713
24 Kansas 1,700
25 Oklahoma 1,692
26 Delaware 1,639
27 Ohio 1,624
28 Florida 1,598
29 West Virginia 1,549
30 District of Columbia 1,548
31 California 1,540
32 Missouri 1,484
33 Montana 1,439
34 Kentucky 1,435
35 Maryland 1,410
36 Wisconsin 1,273
37 Minnesota 1,254
38 Virginia 1,235
39 Wyoming 1,214
40 Nebraska 1,205
41 North Carolina 1,183
42 Idaho 1,129
43 Colorado 1,098
44 New Hampshire 931
45 Washington 712
46 Puerto Rico 686
47 Utah 674
48 Oregon 585
49 Maine 567
50 Alaska 434
51 Vermont 387
52 Hawaii 332

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Alaska 8
2 Michigan 6
3 Georgia 5
4 New Jersey 5
5 West Virginia 5
6 Kentucky 4
7 Pennsylvania 4
8 Vermont 4
9 California 3
10 Delaware 3
11 District of Columbia 3
12 Florida 3
13 Montana 3
14 New York 3
15 Arizona 2
16 Arkansas 2
17 Idaho 2
18 Illinois 2
19 Indiana 2
20 Iowa 2
21 Kansas 2
22 Maine 2
23 Maryland 2
24 Mississippi 2
25 Nevada 2
26 New Hampshire 2
27 New Mexico 2
28 North Carolina 2
29 North Dakota 2
30 Ohio 2
31 Oklahoma 2
32 Puerto Rico 2
33 Rhode Island 2
34 Texas 2
35 Alabama 1
36 Colorado 1
37 Connecticut 1
38 Louisiana 1
39 Massachusetts 1
40 Minnesota 1
41 Missouri 1
42 Oregon 1
43 South Carolina 1
44 South Dakota 1
45 Tennessee 1
46 Virginia 1
47 Washington 1
48 Wisconsin 1
49 Hawaii 0
50 Nebraska 0
51 Utah 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 355,387 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 345,925 2 99
Bent Colorado 266,631 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 245,927 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,009 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 138,899 195 93
Richland South Carolina 108,351 1014 67
York South Carolina 105,624 1131 64
Orange California 84,631 2115 32
Pierce Washington 50,463 2891 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Gove Kansas 8,346 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,539 1779 43
Davidson Tennessee 1,330 2030 35
York South Carolina 1,313 2053 34
Richland South Carolina 1,292 2080 33
Pierce Washington 696 2719 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons